Research

Disaster Lending: "Fair" Prices, but "Unfair" Access

with Taylor Begley, Umit Gurun, and Amiyatosh Purnanandam.
R&R Management Science
Summary: We examine loan decisions in the SBA disaster loan program. We find that under risk-insensitive loan pricing – a feature present in many government programs – marginal credit quality borrowers are less likely to receive credit.
Presentations: AFA, Red Rock, Univ. of KY, FIRS, Finance Down Under, MoFiR, Front Range, CFIC, EBCN, MFA, MD4SG

From L.A. to Boise: How Migration Has Changed During the COVID-19 Pandemic

with Peter Haslag.
R&R Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Main Figures: Map-Arrivals, Map-Departures
Summary: We provide an initial assessment of how migration patterns have changed during the pandemic using proprietary data on 300k+ residential, interstate moves over the last four years and supplemented with representative data from the CPS. We find high income movers are moving out of large cities and are moving less for job-related reasons and more for non-work related reasons.
Media Coverage

Uncovering Financial Constraints

with Matt Linn
R&R Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Main Figures: extended coverage of our measure. Robinhood (& other retail) investors tend to favor equity constrained stocks.
Summary: We classify firms’ financial constraints using a random forest model. We find equity issuance, investment, and institutional ownership of equity-focused constrained firms is especially sensitive to investor sentiment. In the cross-section, institutional ownership is negatively associated with equity-related constraints. Among 1990s discount brokerage investors and Robinhood investors, the stock of equity-focused constrained firms is preferred relative to unconstrained firms.
Extra Resources: [Data] [Internet Appendix]
Presentations: UnivFL ML & Finance, MFA, FMA, NFA, Dolomites

Long-Run Labor Costs of Housing Booms and Busts

with Taylor Begley and Peter Haslag
Main Figure: Relative outcome for realty entrants in "Bubble" MSAs
Summary: We study individual labor market decisions during the house price run-up of the early 2000s using the career paths of nearly 7 million workers. We find severe negative long-run outcomes for individuals that enter realty in areas with higher non-fundamental house price growth.
Presentations: ATL Fed/GSU Real Estate, FDU, RCFS/RAPS, Stockholm LFG, EFA

with Matthew Gustafson, Peter Haslag, and Zihan Ye
Main Figure: Yields and Migration Shock Over Time
Summary: We find the shift towards remote work and households' locational preferences post-COVID have impacted municipalities' cost of borrowing, credit ratings, and issuance behavior. Analyzing yield changes across the term structure, we find yield changes are largest at the 5 to 10 year horizon suggesting heightened risks in the medium-run.
Presentations: AEA*

*scheduled

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