Research

COVID-induced Migration and Municipal Bonds.

with Matthew Gustafson, Peter Haslag, and Zihan Ye
Main Figure: Yields and Migration Shock Over Time
Summary: We find the shift in locational preferences induced by COVID affected municipalities' cost of borrowing, credit ratings, and issuance behavior. Yield changes are especially severe for lower-rated bonds and municipalities experiencing larger than usual outflows.

From L.A. to Boise: How Migration Has Changed During the COVID-19 Pandemic

with Peter Haslag.
Main Figures: Map-Arrivals, Map-Departures
Summary: We provide an initial assessment of how migration patterns have changed during the pandemic using proprietary data on 300k+ residential, interstate moves over the last four years and supplemented with representative data from the CPS. We find high income movers are moving out of large cities and are moving less for job-related reasons and more for non-work related reasons.
Media Coverage

Disaster Lending: "Fair" Prices, but "Unfair" Access

with Taylor Begley, Umit Gurun, and Amiyatosh Purnanandam.
R&R Management Science
Summary: We examine loan decisions in the SBA disaster loan program. We find that under risk-insensitive loan pricing – a feature present in many government programs – marginal credit quality borrowers are less likely to receive credit.
Presentations: AFA, Red Rock, Univ. of KY, FIRS, Finance Down Under, MoFiR, Front Range, CFIC, EBCN, MFA, MD4SG

Firm Finances and the Spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Nursing Homes

with Taylor Begley
R&R Review of Corporate Finance Studies
Main Figures: Cash Levels and COVID Spread, Cash Flow Shocks and COVID Spread
Summary: We find that firms’ financial resources play an important role in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 using data on nursing homes.
Presentations: ECGI Corporations and COVID19*, WFA, FIRS, Eastern Finance Association.

Long-Run Labor Costs of Housing Booms and Busts

with Taylor Begley and Peter Haslag
Main Figure: Relative outcome for realty entrants in "Bubble" MSAs
Summary: We study individual labor market decisions during the house price run-up of the early 2000s using the career paths of nearly 7 million workers. We find severe negative long-run outcomes for individuals that enter realty in areas with higher non-fundamental growth.
Presentations: ATL Fed/GSU Real Estate, FDU, RCFS/RAPS, Stockholm LFG, EFA

Uncovering Financial Constraints

with Matt Linn
Main Figure: extended coverage of our measure compared to 10-K-based measures
Summary: We classify firms’ financial constraints using a random forest model and provide evidence that returns of debt (equity) constrained firms are more sensitive to shocks to the cost of equity (debt) financing.
Extra Resources: [Data] [Internet Appendix]
Presentations: MFA, FMA, NFA, Dolomites

*scheduled

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